[DIPECHO Network] My View on the recent floods in South Asia

[Mandira Shrestha]

My View
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The Deluge of Floods in South Asia
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Floods and landslides are the most common natural
hazards in the Himalayan region, resulting in
disasters of various scales every year. Growing
population, haphazard development, environmental
degradation, and endemic poverty all contribute to the
region's already great vulnerability to floods. Over
the last three decades, South Asia has seen a
staggering 65,000 deaths and about a billion people
affected by floods and landslides that account for
more than one-third (33%) of all the floods occurring
in Asia.

The monsoon rains this year have rendered another 30
million people homeless, and more than 2700 dead in
Bangladesh, India, and Nepal in the worst flood
disaster in the region in the last 30 years. A few
years back in 2005, the extreme rainfall in Mumbai
(944 mm collecting in 24 hours), and the extensive
flooding in June 2007 in Balochistan, which used to be
one of the driest regions of Pakistan, are just a few
examples of the erratic patterns and increasing number
of floods in the region in recent history. They
testify to the projections of scientists, based on
climate models, that changes in monsoon patterns with
respect to both intensity and duration are likely to
occur as a result of climate change and variability.

The most recent floods have resulted in huge economic
losses of an estimated US $ 131 million. Similar
scales of economic losses have been experienced in
floods in previous years, such as those witnessed in
Mumbai and in Pakistan. Recurring flood disasters have
had a detrimental impact on the economy, the
environment, and society at large, slowing down the
development process and the region's sustainable
development. But a positive paradigm shift has been
gradually taking over the last few years in disaster
management, which has upgraded from a
response-and-relief approach to greater preparedness
and mitigation. The number of lives lost is
comparatively less now than in previous such
disasters, indicating the growing effectiveness of
preparedness and awareness. However, the impacts on
the livelihoods of the poor and the marginalised are
still significant.

Flood disasters are on the rise, with larger numbers
of people being affected, escalating adverse impacts.
How do we effectively minimise these negative impacts?
Despite the increasing number of organisations working
on disaster risk reduction, coping with flood
disasters remains a challenge in the region. Are flood
management policies lacking, or is the gap in
implementation? Are available scientific knowledge and
know-how not adequate to predict and cope with flood
disasters? Or can the gap be in knowledge transfer and
social mobilisation? We cannot stop floods from
occurring, but we could be better prepared prior to,
during, and after the disaster. The immense suffering
of flood victims, the possibility of an epidemic of
water-borne diseases, and the lack of drinking water
constantly pose threats to people’s lives and
livelihoods after the floods. Greater efforts are
needed to prevent an epidemic breakout in the affected
areas, for which preparedness for emergency response,
relief, and rehabilitation is extremely important.

Partner countries now have a growing capacity to
forecast floods with greater accuracy. But flood
forecasts should not be limited to national agencies
alone. An end-to-end forecast system should be
promoted to communicate forecast knowledge and
information in a timely manner that society can
immediately use. We also need to look at links at all
levels of intervention ­ from data collection to
action at the community level, and from scientists and
decision makers to communities. All these links must
be present and functional if the benefits from
forecasting are to be achieved. In the recent floods
there have been reports of increased flooding in India
due to breach of embankments. Systematic monitoring
and maintenance of such structures are therefore also
essential. Allocation of adequate resources for
structural and non-structural measures is essential
for integrated flood management.

Trust and confidence between and amongst countries is
also necessary to avoid blaming each other for the
impacts of floods, as has been the case during many
extreme floods in the past. Cooperation and
coordination within and across international
boundaries is important. Greater political will and
transboundary dialogue to promote regional cooperation
is required in order to reduce the floods' negative
impacts, which often cross geographic and political
boundaries.

As the recent floods illustrate, disasters related to
weather and climate do not stop at national borders.
This makes the exchange of measured
hydrometeorological data produced by countries of the
region from ground stations in their respective areas
indispensable. There is also a need to further enhance
the understanding and timely forecasting of floods
through the advances in science and technology. ICIMOD
is working with partner organisations to facilitate
the exchange of real-time hydrometeorological data and
information that will enable timely flood forecasting.
With the support of NOAA and USGS, ICIMOD is
contributing to improving the capacity of partner
countries to estimate rainfall using remotely-sensed
data. This technology is extremely useful in a
data-sparse and sensitive region, and this is looked
at as contributing to better rainfall estimates and
flood forecasting taking place in the future. Early
forecast will provide time to place effective early
warning systems in order to save lives and valuable
infrastructure.

Finally, reduction in future losses from floods will
depend on the ability of all levels of governance ­
regional, national, and local ­ to work together on
preventive measures, to act jointly in the face of
disasters, and to be able to draw on contingency plans.
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